My predictions for Tuesday:
[EDIT 11/3: Okay, somehow the map got borked and I can't fix it. Just imagine the 2004 map with these states turned blue: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.]
Obama 364, McCain 174.
It’s an uncontroversial map. Probably the biggest reach is Obama losing Missouri while winning Indiana, but do you remember the primary? Hillary was pretty far ahead in the polls in Indiana, but Obama’s ground game — helped by his machine in the northwestern area that borders Chicago — closed it to a couple of points and almost tipped the state. Last I checked, Obama opened several offices in the state to McCain’s none. That will be the difference.
Missouri, Georgia, North Dakota, and Arizona will be close, but they’ll stay red. McCain is the only reason Arizona will go Republican this year. Assuming Obama stays popular, it will be a blue state in 2012.
If McCain makes up a point or two in the polls, the likeliest state to flip back to him is Florida, followed by Indiana and North Carolina. However, even those three would only get him to 227 EVs.
National vote: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.
On to the Senate: the Democrats will lose no seats. Warner (VA), Udall (NM), Udall (CO), and Begich (AK) are locks. Shaheen (NH), Merkley (OR), and Hagan (NC) will win close races. The polling in Minnesota has been all over the place, but in the end, unfortunately, I think Coleman beats Franken.
In Georgia, the bad news is Martin trails Chambliss in the polls. The good news is, I believe Obama’s ground game will give Martin a narrow plurality. The bad news is, if he doesn’t pass 50%, there will be a runoff next month, and Martin will lose the Obama bounce. In the end, Chambliss returns to the Senate.
Meanwhile, Joe Lieberman FINALLY gets booted from his committee chairmanships, and he departs for the Republican caucus in a droopy huff. Senate makeup: 57 Dems, 43 GOP.
I can’t give you a House or Governorship prediction, since those races have been off my radar. I think California’s Prop 8 will be narrowly defeated, though.
Three days to Election Day, and then we’ll see how wrong I am. I really, really hope I’m not. Based on current polling, it’ll be a good day.